で、どうよ？　日本銀行　その１　（1月23日発行）

動かないマネーサプライ。息切れマネタリーベース。速水、円高と共に去りぬ？


みんな堕ちていった・・・

    That is the dilemma that faces the Bank of Japan, which has driven short-term interest rates to zero for
    more than four years and still has not halted the deflation that grips Japan
　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　January 21　（IHT）

    Falling prices have killed demand and increased the real level of debt, eroding standards of living in Japan.
　 　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　January 23（FEER）

    With the deficit reaching alarming levels, the yen strengthening and consumers and
     companies hunkering down・・・
　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　January 21　（IHT）



処方箋を巡って・・・

    "I think the debates are being used as a political tool to divert the public's attention from the slow pace of
    reforms．Politicians are trying to dump everything in the lap of the BOJ."
   　          　　　　　    　　　Masaaki Kanno, chief economist at JP Morgan　　　22 January（BBC）

   “whether the arteries are clogged, or the heart just isn't pumping hard enough.”
                            Robert Feldman, chief economist at Morgan Stanley in Tokyo　　　Jan 9th （Economist）

    The only way to change this, say many in the central bank(BOJ), is to write off bad loans and pursue
    structural reforms.
      　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Jan 9th （Economist）

    Running budget deficits do not meet Japan's needs.They are dangerous unless reinforced by
    monetary policy. Rises in the budget deficit have not been offset by monetary policy and have thus
    pushed up the yen, hurting net exports.
                  　　　　　　　　　Andrew Smithers，chairman of Smithers & Co 　　　January 19  （FT）


次期総裁は重要な分水嶺・・・

    The forthcoming announcement of the next governor of the Bank of Japan is of vital importance.
　　　　　        　   　　      　Andrew Smithers，chairman of Smithers & Co 　　　January 19  （FT）

    If he(koizumi) really wants to revive the economy, he can choose central bankers who seem determined
    to get prices rising again, and make his case to Parliament.
　    　　　　 　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Jan 9th（Economist）

    "Japan stands in danger of becoming irrelevant to world financial markets．There will be lots of
    disappointment if a defender of the status quo becomes BOJ governor and we get deflation
    as far as the eye can see."
                        　　　Chris Walker, an economist at Credit Suisse First Boston　 　　January 21　（IHT）









で、どうよ？　元のドルペッグ　（1月１６日発行）

最近、ドル安なので、変動相場制にしてもらえないもんでしょうか。


遠い遠い昔　遥か彼方の銀河系で・・・　”マトリックス　アンローデッド”
　The link(to the dollar）was seen as crucial in maintaining the flow of foreign investment
　 in China, when many investors in other Asian countries were fleeing their weakened currencies.
　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 June30, 2000 （BBC）

"During the Asian financial crisis, China's leadership talked tough on the currency and succeeded in holding the line against devaluation elsewhere in Asia,"
　　　　　　　　　  Huang Zemin, an professor at Huadong Normal University 　 June30, 2000  （BBC）


そろそろ、変動相場どうですかね・・・

　"China will have one more tool to manage the economy,"
　　　                  Joydeep Mukherji, sovereign analyst at Standard & Poor's 　　 June　30, 2000 （BBC）

　"Ultimately as China becomes more integrated into the world and the WTO and (sees)
　 other financial integration, there will be more reasons and opportunities to have greater
　 flexibility exchange rates,"
　　　　　　　　　　                             U.S. Treasury Undersecretary John Taylor 　　Jan 4  （Reuters）


しばらく 大胆な導入はなさそうです・・・

　"The central bank will maintain continuity and stability of financial policy this year and
　 continue to implement a stable and healthy monetary policy,"(金融政策への言及)
　　　　　　　　　        　　           China's central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan 　　Jan 7  （Reuters）

　"Much more than a very small move would increase the burden on a part of the
　 economy（struggling state-owned enterprises 、financial system riddled with bad
　 loans） that's already under pressure and the social costs of restructuring that are not trivial,"
                                                     Economist with ING Financial Markets Tim Condon 　　January 14  （FT）

　"Ultimately, the issue of the yuan [renminbi] is a political one,"
                                                 Currency strategist with Deutsche Bank Peter Redward 　　January 14  （FT）










で、どうよ？　石油価格　（1月4日発行）

高止まりの石油価格、ベネズエラのスト、始まりそうで始まらない戦争。


えーと、現状は次のような感じだそうで・・・・
　"The world oil system will have extremely low inventory cover as it enters what is
　perhaps the most geopolitically uncertain period for some twenty years,"
　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Paul Horsnell　J.P. Morgan. （Reuterｓ　1/3）

　"Too much irreplaceable-in-the-short-term oil has been lost, and the Iraqi situation is
　 still out there,"
　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 　　　one Houston-based energy analyst（BBC　1/2）


それで、今後はロクなことはないようで・・・・
　"Every time there has been a nasty oil price spike, there has been a serious effect on
　 global growth," 　
　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Matthew Wickens　ABN AMRO in London　（IHT　1/3）

　"As long as traders wake up thinking about a possible war and an unending strike,
　 prices will continue higher," 　
　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Peter Beutel Cameron Hanover.（FT　1/3）


最悪の場合、こんなことにもなりかねないようで・・・・
　The Yamani Centre for Global Energy Studies has predicted that a chemical attack on
　a Gulf oil facility would push the price of oil up to $100 per barrel.　　　　
　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　（BBC　Q&A）

　A cornered Saddam Hussein might try to bomb oil fields in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere.
　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 　（Economist　1/3）